Will 2013 Bring Us iPhone 5S Or iPhone 6?
Posted by Michael Nace on Monday Sep 17, 2012 Under iPhone 6 OpinionDespite the fact that the iPhone 5 is a feature-rich hardware overhaul, some big, rumored features have still yet to arrive onto the iPhone. Will groundbreaking new features spur Apple to release another overhauled iPhone in 2013, or simply a refreshed iPhone 5S?
One of the things that Apple enthusiasts are always looking for are patterns: patterns that give consumers a clue as to what Apple might do next with its extremely popular mobile devices alla the iPhone and iPad. In one way, the prognosticating of future Apple releases has become a kind of tech pastime — a fun, exciting diversion that keeps people guessing and getting incrementally more psyched as the clock counts down to the next release. And on a pragmatic side, the prospect of new designs and features helps users decide if they are going to buy a new iPhone now, or wait until the next one.
Unfortunately, finding clues to patterns in Apple’s release schedule are hard to unearth.
However, a pattern is beginning to emerge: Apple may now be resigned to staggering its iPhone overhauls with incremental refreshes. A pattern seems to be developing: 3G, 3GS, 4, 4S, 5 . . . and in 2013 — iPhone 5S?
Not necessarily.
There are two key outstanding issues with the iPhone as it currently stands that will ultimately determine if the 2013 iPhone is a 5S or 6.
The iPhone 5S: If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
Clearly, the iPhone 5 is going to go on to be the biggest-selling iPhone of all time. At present, it appears as if it will sell at double the pace of the iPhone 4S, which of course shattered the iPhone 4′s sales records. But it also isn’t hard to imagine that the iPhone 5 could manage to have even exponentially higher sales numbers than what we are currently seeing. It would not surprise me if Apple sells more iPhone 5 units than all previous iPhone sales combined — or some crazy sales figure like that.
If the is the case, then it’s hard to imagine that Apple will feel the need to bend over backwards to offer an overhauled iPhone 6. Just as gaming consoles like the Wii, Xbox, and Playstation have seen few overhauls in recent years due to steady, impressive sales, so too could Apple seek to simply reinvigorate iPhone 5 sales next year at this time by doing a refreshed iPhone 5S. This could entail a big software update alla iOS 7, A7 processor, and the usual improvements in cameras and displays — but no change in the form factor or major hardware.
The iPhone 6: NFC/iWallet, Biometric Security & Other New Hardware Deserves a New Form Factor
It remains to be seen if NFC will be ready to go on the next iPhone, and if its appearance would constitute a jump from the iPhone 5 straight on to the iPhone 6. The prospect of iWallet is that it could change the way that people spend money on a daily basis. Because of this potentiality, it remains to be seen if Apple would simply add it into a refreshed iPhone 5S or not: making a bigger deal out of it via an iPhone 6 might help facilitate sales and adoption.
Also, if Apple were to include some kind of biometric security to work in tandem with iWallet, that too could necessitate a new form factor.
It appears now that the form factor coincides with whether or not an iPhone is a refresh or an overhaul: when Apple makes changes to the form factor, it gets a new number. When they stick with the current look, they simply slap on an “S.”
iPhone 5S, Then iPhone 6
Although it’s not a tough prediction to make, I would not be entirely surprised if Apple opted for an iPhone 5S in 2013 and wait to release the iPhone 6 in 2014. Along these lines, I would also not be surprised if Apple is still two years away from adopting NFC and iWallet. Yes, we’ve seen multiple NFC patents from Apple, but that certainly doesn’t mean that using your iPhone to pay for things is right around the corner. For Apple, getting into iWallet means that they have to get into a completely new type of business. You don’t just launch that overnight.
it looks right now like for the past couple of years, Apple has simply been wrestling with the NFC technology just for the iPhone. Now that the technology appears to be in place, Cupertino might only be in “phase two” of its development.
This would mean that 2014 will usher in a new iPhone 6 that offers a brand-new form factor, as well as the NFC innovation.
If you’re really excited about iWallet and are anticipating it for 2013, then my feeling is that you should hope for the best, but plan for the worst. iWallet — and the iPhone 6 that could usher it in, might actually be two years away.
By Michael Nace
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September 17th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Apple do seem to be in a tic-toc pattern that would suggest the next model would use the same form factor (a “5S”), but if the media verdict on the 5 was “boring” then it’s hard to see what a 5S within the 5′s new form factor could do that would be any more exciting. Presumably an IOS7 update would be available on the 5, and the 5′s display is already at the limits of the physical form factor and resolutions that your eye can resolve, and the 5 isn’t exactly underpowered so a more powerful A7 may make it slightly slicker but would it really transform the user experience? So what is left to differentiate a 5S from a 5? Better cameras, maybe, but is that enough? Support for international 4G LTE standards would be good for customers outside North America! But what else can they realistically do?
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September 17th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Well, my own personal opinion is that as we get new technologies in cellphones such as NFC, LTE etc, Apple is going to need to step it up. Competitors like Samsung who release multiple different phones every year jump on these new technologies. Motorola delivered the first Verizon LTE phone and then the rest followed, here’s Apple finally releasing theirs. NFC has been out on a few phones already, by the time Apple releases there’s it will already be standard and other manufacturers will probably be further advanced than Apple. My point is, the iPhone is amazing, it’s a great device. But if Apple wants to stay on top of its game in 2013 and beyond, they need to stop releasing refreshes and start delivering serious phones like the iPhone 5 every year. They need to jam down the throats of their competitors and keep up with the innovation we love.
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September 17th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
I like the form factor of the 5, so I don’t think Apple really needs to go radical, maybe with the iPhone after next year’s. I think it’s all about software and functionality that will need an overhaul next June. That’s what it’s all about. iOS 7, WWDC, next June.
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September 17th, 2012 at 3:08 pm
I am guessing a 5s.
Not sure what else they are holding in their hand, that is not already in the current phone.
NFC? Yet even faster CPU?
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September 17th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
I agree that we’ll probably see a 5S next year and a 6 in 2014. It doesn’t make sense for the longer body to only be in production for a year before switching to something else. On the other hand, I agree with Core2. In my opinion, the iPhone 5 has everything it needs except for NFC. If NFC is going to wait until the iPhone 6, what can they do on the 5S? The camera is already great, it has LTE, and we won’t need a faster processor in the near future. The only thing I can think of is keeping all the internals the same and take advantage of new battery technology to squeeze in a larger battery.
As for iOS 7, I again can’t think of anything I really want but I’m sure Apple will tell me at WWDC. Maybe they’ll include an NFC chip in the next phone, but only allow users to preload money instead of linking it directly to their bank accounts. After passbook, that seems like the next conservative step towards full blown iWallet.
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September 18th, 2012 at 12:18 am
Hey Mike,
Will you be adding the “Like” button for the iP6 blog. There have been a few great comments but can’t vote on them! Looking forward to my 2 1/2+ years with the blog. Thanks for a great job!
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September 18th, 2012 at 1:39 am
Why doesn’t Apple adopt these new technologies? They haven’t matured yet.
Why do competitors jump onto them right away? It’s one of there only edges against the iPhone.
Seriously, with Apple and how they “adopt” you into their ecosystem, I find it really unlikely that they’re Gona include some half-baked technologies that may or may not become a standard.
Apple’s competitors, knowing this, decide to stick every technology they can to gain ground against the iPhone. With them, it’s like saying “Here’s some crazy stuff; hope you get to use it more than three times during your contract. ”
This is why it looks like Apple is playing “keep up.” They are being blamed for implementing the right technologies at the right time.
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September 18th, 2012 at 3:54 am
Love this blog…
Next iphone. Personally I think Faster cpu, more RAM, Maybe 1080p front and rear camera, maybe more m/pixels, NFC hmm 50/50 on that one. No change to shape in any way. It could be another big iOS update to complement not so big hardware upgrade. Maybe itunes subscription streaming service. I think 2014 will be a year for revolutionar new shape.
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September 18th, 2012 at 10:29 am
Apple stock just hit $700…….. Just saying.
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September 18th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Curious to see what little monster dude I get…
Anywho, definitely a 5S in 2013..which looks like SS…which stands for Super Sport…maybe full car integration? Kidding of course..partially..butI’m not sure what else can really be upped. There’s pretty much 0 chance of holographic ability..iGlasses are still a few years out..hmmm…I’m really sitting here thinking.
Well time will tell us. Looking forward to the iPhone 5S and 6!
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September 20th, 2012 at 7:55 am
“The camera is already great, it has LTE, and we won’t need a faster processor in the near future. The only thing I can think of is keeping all the internals the same and take advantage of new battery technology to squeeze in a larger battery.”
@Thomas – Imo, the camera is not great, yet. Being a user of other OSs besides, ios there much room for improvements concerning the camara/video features. For example, my two years old N8 has a Xenon flash which is desperately needed in low light or night condition to freeze moments, no blurry photos. A led light doesn’t cut it, and never has. Both the camera and video features in the iPhone only provide the bare bones in terms of settings. There is only one video quality on the iPhone, where I would appreciate the opportunity to chose, as I do on my N8. Especially, considering that iPhone does not provide swappable/expandable memory, which it should, but doesn’t.
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September 20th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
@genXhippie,
Well at least you have the option to install different camera interfaces which provide you with far more options. As far as the flash, cost and lifespan are probably the biggest drivers there, so I doubt we will see a Xenon.
My favorite one right now is SloPro for video. It lets you shoot 720p video at a true 60fps.
Swappable/expandable memory won’t ever happen. Double your storage for $100. Double from that for just another $100.
Apple would only sell 16GB models if you could drop in a 32Gb Micro SD card.
I still don’t understand why someone would buy a Samsung GS3 32GB when you can get the 16GB for $40-50 cheaper, and still expand the MicroSD up to 64GB.
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September 20th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
@Core2 – Thanks for sharing yours thoughts, good food for thoughts. With your last statement concerning the 16GB SGS3, that was exactly my approach when I purchased the SGS2 a year ago now. I use a memory with my N8 too. I find this option very practical and convenient. That’s why I miss it on the iPhone(s). Hell, while we’re at the iPads should have this feature too imo.
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September 22nd, 2012 at 1:43 am
quite honestly im not sure what more they could do besides NFC. anything else im not sure how much id actually use. im guessing it’ll be a 5S, improved processor, improved camera (at least front facing), 128 GB available storage, A7 (or A6x) processor, and ios7. some of these are wishful thinking but not seeing too much that’ll change with the 5S and quite frankly i dont need much more than the 5 gave me now
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September 23rd, 2012 at 11:05 am
With the iPhone (and quite possibly the iPad), it looks like Apple is on a 2-year cycle – a major announcement one year followed by a refresh the following year. They are conservative when it comes to redesigning their hardware so this doesn’t surprise me and this is okay bye. When you design hardware as nice looking as Apple, there’s no need to change just for the hell of it.
Also, when you’re selling hundreds of millions of iDevices every year, redesigning the hardware every year becomes not only costly, but a logistical nightmare, not just for your own staff but your supplier and manufacturers as well.
On a side note, I actually got to see an iPhone 5 first hand yesterday. All I can say pictures definitely don’t do it justice. I was very surprised as to how thin and light it was in person.
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September 24th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Features? I feel like LTE was the last thing I was waiting for. I’ve jumped on every phone since it became available on Verizon – 4, 4S, 5. Now the only things that would make me jump again would be a battery that doubles in life, and maybe an even better camera.
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
I think 5S will come in October 2013. iPhone 6 will come in September 2014.
I think in order for Apple to remain competitive, it’s time to really upgrade the UI of iOS. We are seeing that it is baby software compared to Android. It’s boring and at this point, out dated. Serious widget integration would be nice. The camera on iPhone is great, more features would be great.
iPhone 6 will probably maintain the screen of iPhone 5. But I’d expect a radically different form factor. Maybe then, I’ll jump back with Apple. For now, I’m Galaxy S3 bound.
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December 14th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
I think Apple NEEDS to go for the iPhone 6. The reaction to the iPhone 5 has been bad. The casual buyer believes nothing has changed since iPhone 4. A different shape is necessary, albeit with the same size. We don’t need huge phones like the S3 and the 920. I very much agree with Apple’s philosophy of phones being used with one hand, which can’t be done with the S3 or the 920.
Apple may have to implement the A6X processor, used in the iPad 4, to satisfy the people, who seem to have caught on the ‘bigger is better’ fever generated by Samsung.
The major change must be in the OS. iOS 6 was a disaster, especially the Maps app. It MUST be fixed. Next, iOS 7 must have some new features. For example, lock screen widgets. Or themes. Themes is a concept much used in the jailbreaking scene. Apple can make use of that.
Also, it should enable file transfer through Bluetooth. Except for multiplayer gaming, the Bluetooth feature almost seems pointless. They can prevent transfer of apps and songs downloaded through iTunes, to prevent piracy. Or instead of Bluetooth, we could be given these features through NFC too.
Basically, I believe Apple needs to make a radical change in it’s approach to the next iPhone. Or else, Apple’s will see a dwindling market share and become something like Motorola or Nokia, a ghost of the giant company they used to be.
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January 17th, 2013 at 1:55 pm
Hello there, There’s no doubt that your blog could be having browser compatibility problems. When I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Apart from that, wonderful blog!|
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